A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change

Gosling, Simon and Warren, Rachel and Arnell, Nigel and Good, Peter and Caesar, John and Bernie, Dan and Lowe, Jason A. and Van der Linden, Paul and O'Hanley, Jesse and Smith, Stephen M. (2011) A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part II: The global-scale impacts of climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 35 (4). pp. 443-464. ISSN 0309-1333 . (The full text of this publication is not available from this repository)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407650

Abstract

This article presents a review of recent developments in studies assessing the global-scale impacts of climate change published since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Literature covering six main impact sectors is reviewed: sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal impacts, ocean acidification, ecosystems and biodiversity, water resources and desertification, agriculture and food security, and human health. The review focuses on studies with a global perspective to climate change impacts assessment, although in the absence of global studies for some sectors or aspects of impacts, national and regional studies are cited. The review highlights three major emerging themes which are of importance for the policy- and decision-making process: (1) a movement towards probabilistic methods of impacts assessment and/or the consideration of climate modelling uncertainty; (2) a move towards assessing potential impacts that could be avoided under different climate change mitigation scenarios relative to a business-as-usual reference scenario; and (3) uncertainties that remain in understanding the relationship between climate and natural or human systems. Whether recent impact assessments show a changed risk of damage to human or natural systems since the AR4 depends upon the impact sector; whether the assessments are robust or not (i.e. will stand the test of time) requires additional expert judgement. However, using this judgement, overall we find an increased risk to natural systems, and in some components of human systems.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Agri-Environment Economics
Depositing User: Kasia Senyszyn
Date Deposited: 09 Jun 2011 11:45
Last Modified: 02 Jun 2014 15:10
Resource URI: http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/27899 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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