The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China

Hasan, Mohammad S (2010) The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China. Journal of Policy Modeling , 32 (3). pp. 355-372. ISSN 0161-8938. (The full text of this publication is not available from this repository)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.09.005

Abstract

This paper examines the nature of stationarity, cointegration properties and Granger causality on the relationship between population and per capita income in mainland China in a multivariate vector autoregressive model. This study finds the evidence of a common stochastic trend between population and per capita income which is indicative of long-run relationship between these two variables. Empirical results also indicate that a negative long-run causal relationship is flowing from per capita income to population. The short-run relationship between population growth and per capita income growth is at variance across model specifications. The neoclassical growth model reveals that population growth positively contributes to per capita income growth while the modified endogenous growth model shows a negative relationship between these two variables. Moreover, both neoclassical and endogenous growth models indicate that per capita income growth tends to lower the population growth. The long-run relationship is consistent with Becker's view that as income grows, families tend to prefer quality rather than quantity of children.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: Population growth and per capita income; Population ‘hawk’ argument; Population ‘revisionist’ view; Cointegration; Rank stability test; Error correction model
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Rebecca Stevenson
Date Deposited: 14 Jun 2010 15:34
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2012 12:52
Resource URI: http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/24905 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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