Forecasting on British election night 1997

Brown, P.J. and Firth, D. and Payne, C.D. (1999) Forecasting on British election night 1997. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series a-Statistics in Society, 162 . pp. 211-226. ISSN 0964-1998. (The full text of this publication is not available from this repository)

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Abstract

An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBC's exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: British general election; ecological regression; generalized ridge regression; prediction; pseudodata augmentation
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science)
Divisions: Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science
Depositing User: M. Nasiriavanaki
Date Deposited: 07 Jul 2009 06:47
Last Modified: 07 Jul 2009 06:47
Resource URI: http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/17137 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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