King, R. and Brooks, S.P. and Mazzetta, C. and Freeman, S.N. and Morgan, B.J.T. (2008) Identifying and diagnosing population declines: a Bayesian assessment of lapwings in the UK. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C - Applied Statistics, 57 (5). pp. 609-632. ISSN 0035-9254 .
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We combine data from separate ring recovery and survey studies to provide indices of estimated abundance for the UK lapwing Vanellus vanellus population. Using a descriptive state space model, we demonstrate the observed decline in population size in relation to directly interpretable parameters describing the demographic characteristics of the population. The Bayesian approach readily provides information that is directly relevant to the conservation of this important bird species. The method proposed extends previous work in this area in several ways. Restrictive normality assumptions that have traditionally been imposed are removed, in addition to the assumption of constant measurement error by using information relating to the index variability across time to account fully for this source of uncertainty within the model. We also provide model-averaged inference to help to inform management policy and uses.
|Uncontrolled keywords:||Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling; model choice; population status; random effects; ring recovery; state space models; survey data; Vanellus vanellus|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics
Q Science > QL Zoology
|Divisions:||Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics|
|Depositing User:||Byron Morgan|
|Date Deposited:||17 Apr 2009 09:07|
|Last Modified:||22 May 2009 09:49|
|Resource URI:||http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/13004 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)|
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